Thursday, September 16, 2004

Say it ain't so

I was a big fan of this website, which provides the electoral vote count if the election were held today. A visit to the site informs us that Bush would win, 311-223. That's not too encouraging.

Now imagine my dismay when I saw that the site puts my beloved home state of New Jersey in the "Barely Bush" category. New Jersey? For Bush? The state that Al Gore won by 15 points? By hovering the mouse over New Jersey, I learned that a Survey USA poll was used as its source, giving Bush a 49-45 lead. Sounded pretty dubious to me.

So I visited the website of the highly-regarded Eagleton Institute of Poltics at my alma mater, Rutgers University. For years, the Eagleton Institute has been teaming with the Star-Ledger of Newark to conduct polls, which are usually quite reliable. I don't know for a fact that the Eagleton Institute and Star-Ledger are more credible than Survey USA, but it strikes me as a logical conclusion.

Anyway, the latest Star-Ledger/Eagleton-Rutgers poll, conducted immediately after the Republican National Convention, gives Kerry a slim 43-39 lead.

The Survey USA poll was conducted from September 12-14, meaning that the convention bounce would most likely have faded. And Bush still has a four-point lead? Again, seems dubious.

Adding to my incredulity is the fact that, according to ABC News, Bush leads Kerry by just one point in Pennsylvania. In case you didn't know, unlike New Jersey, the Keystone State is actually considered to be a battleground state.

The point of this whole exercise? Take polls with a serious grain of salt.


At 1:10 PM, Blogger Jay said...

Bottom line though is that NJ is closer than the Democrats would like and there are many here at RU that are nervous because the state seems to be "in play"

At 11:14 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

You hear that sound? That is the sound of inevitiblity. The sound of Kerry's defeat...

Dip's right. its a tough road ahead for Kerry. Hopefully he'll go out like all the liberal losers before him and get squashed.

At 3:26 PM, Blogger Dan said...

We'll see.


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